Toms Group, the Danish confectionery maker, is pursuing low, single-digit sales growth this year as it navigates cocoa volatility and the rise of GLP-1 drugs that may reshape consumer snacking behaviour.
The company posted a 7% sales increase last year, reaching DKr1.80bn ($283m) in revenue and DKr41m in net profit. It now operates across more than 100 countries, though over 60% of turnover stays within the Nordic region, where it holds an 18% market share in Denmark and a 4.5% share in Sweden.
CEO Annette Zeipel, a former Mars and Wrigley executive who joined in 2021, said the company is not expecting the Danish sugar tax to be repealed after the government election in March put the planned phase-out on hold. In Denmark, roughly 70% of confectionery purchases come from promotions, reflecting strong price sensitivity among consumers.
Cocoa cost and energy inflation
Toms will not take further price increases tied to cocoa at the moment, Zeipel said, despite cocoa prices remaining elevated due to production lags. The real pressure comes from energy and knock-on costs for plastic, paper, and transport. The company is bracing for inflationary waves similar to 2022-23 when the energy crisis hit after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Long-term cocoa supply faces structural challenges: trees are ageing, disease is spreading, farmers lack capital to replant, and new crops take 7 to 8 years to mature.
Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East adds to these risks, raising the prospect of another round of energy-driven inflation across food manufacturing.
GLP-1 and innovation strategy
Zeipel acknowledged the GLP-1 wave as a trend the company must understand, but insisted "people still want to indulge." She expects traditional confectionery to see a shift in consumption patterns, with demand tilting toward functional benefits, higher protein, lower sugar, and gut-health claims. For now, Toms' innovation pipeline focuses on flavour extensions, texture variations, and different formats, such as single-wrap chocolates for sharing rather than formal presentation boxes.
Public awareness of GLP-1 drugs runs high in Denmark because Novo Nordisk, a key player in the category, is based there. But drug penetration in the Danish market lags far behind the US, the first wave market.
Poland and manufacturing footprint
Toms is consolidating chocolate production from its aging Ballerup factory in Denmark, which has operated since 1962, into a newer Polish facility built in 2019. This shift improves profitability by eliminating double costs and running operations in a modern, cheaper facility. The Poland expansion is paying dividends: the country grew 40% last year, with room for growth as Toms reaches only a handful of retailers. The liquorice and marzipan portfolios also gain traction in the Polish market.
Toms sees major growth opportunities in Germany, where it markets premium brands Hachez and Feodora alongside Anthon Berg chocolate and marzipan. The US through Costco, France, the UK, Australia, and eastern Europe also represent large markets, while China and Japan remain small but strategic for seasonal gifting.