Category and country outlooks

10 outlooks

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  🇪🇸

  Q2 2026

  Outlook

  Beer in Spain: Q2 2026 Outlook

  Heineken's Q1 2026 trading update named Spain as one of a handful of European markets delivering volume growth, alongside France and the UK. Premium volume grew 5.8% across Heineken's portfolio globally, with the Heineken brand up 6.9%, and no/low-alcohol expanded double digits. Those global and European signals point to the same structural shift playing out in Spain: premium tiers are gaining ground, no/low-alcohol is moving from niche to mainstream, and mainstream lager faces ongoing pressure. No Spain-specific market size or share figures are available in current sourced signals; KPIs and brand positions are therefore drawn from global and European-level reporting. Commercial leaders operating in Spain should watch Heineken's in-market execution, the pace at which no/low-alcohol converts casual trial into repeat purchase, and any regulatory or labelling developments that could reshape on-trade and retail shelf dynamics.

  Spain · Q2 2026
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  🇮🇹

  Q2 2026

  Outlook

  Beer in Italy: Q2 2026 Outlook

  Heineken's Q1 2026 trading update shows the global premium and no/low-alcohol trend is firmly in motion, with net revenue up 2.8% and the Heineken brand growing volume 6.9% across its markets. Italy sits within the European geography where Heineken reported volume growth alongside France, Spain, and the UK. The structural read for Italy in Q2 2026: the premium tier is expanding, no/low-alcohol is growing double digits globally, and mainstream lager faces continued pressure from private label and value alternatives. No Italy-specific beer market size or share figures are available in current sourced signals; KPIs and brand shares are therefore directional, drawn from global and European-level reporting. Commercial leaders in Italy should watch how Heineken's global premium push lands in-market, and whether the regulatory scrutiny that just hit Italian snack private label suppliers signals broader enforcement appetite across categories.

  Italy · Q2 2026
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  🇮🇹

  Q2 2026

  Outlook

  Soft Drinks in Italy: Q2 2026 Outlook

  Italian soft drinks enter Q2 2026 against a backdrop of fragile consumer confidence and heightened regulatory attention across the broader FMCG space. The country's antitrust authority has moved aggressively in adjacent categories, fining three snack suppliers a combined €23.3 million for coordinating private label supply deals rather than competing for them. That enforcement climate is relevant for soft drinks operators working with retailer own-brand programs. Regionally, the European CPG picture is shifting away from price-led growth toward volume and mix recovery, a trend flagged in the German soft drinks market and applicable here. Italian operators that can defend mainstream price points while managing mix will be better placed than those still leaning on residual pricing momentum from the inflation cycle.

  Italy · Q2 2026
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  🇬🇧

  Q1 2026 / H1 FY26

  Outlook

  Beer in the United Kingdom

  Three of the four largest UK beer players reported in late April 2026. Heineken Q1 net revenue grew 2.8% with premium volume +5.8% (Heineken brand +6.9%) and the UK contributing to European volume growth. Diageo H1 FY26 (six months ended 31 December 2025) showed Guinness up 10.9% globally with Great Britain +2.9% led by Guinness; Diageo confirmed Guinness as the UK's number-one beer and Guinness 0.0 as the UK's number-one alcohol-free beer. AB InBev Q1 2026 reported operating profit +7.9% on volume -2.2% globally. The structural reads: premium tier expansion and no/low alcohol are the visible growth drivers; mainstream lager faces continued private-label and value pressure.

  United Kingdom · Q1 2026 / H1 FY26
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  🇩🇪

  Q2 2026

  Outlook

  Soft Drinks in Germany: Q2 2026 Outlook

  German soft drinks enter Q2 2026 in a market shaped by two competing forces. On one side, European consumer confidence is described as "stable but fragile" by major CPG operators, and developed-market volumes across the sector are under visible pressure. On the other side, the broader European CPG picture is beginning to shift away from price-led growth toward volume and mix recovery, as Danone's FY 2025 result shows. For soft drinks in Germany, the near-term challenge is whether category operators can sustain value growth as pricing contributions moderate and anxious consumers make more deliberate spending choices. Operators with strong mix management and well-positioned mainstream price points are better placed than those relying on residual pricing momentum.

  Germany · Q2 2026
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  🇩🇪

  Q2 2026

  Outlook

  Confectionery in Germany: Q2 2026 Outlook

  Germany's confectionery market enters Q2 2026 with two forces pulling in opposite directions. On the cost side, the mid-year cocoa crop is described as quite positive, offering the first real relief signal after two years of intense input cost pressure. On the demand side, European consumer confidence is "stable but fragile" according to Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put, and developed-market volume is visibly under pressure, with Mondelez's developed-market segment posting a 1.2% volume decline in Q1 2026 even as group organic growth hit 6.3%. Nestle is moving separately, investing in ChoViva, a sunflower-based cocoa ingredient from Planet A Foods, signalling a structural bet on alternative cocoa ingredients rather than waiting for the commodity cycle to self-correct. The broad picture for German confectionery in Q2 2026 is cautious: cost relief is coming but not yet felt, and the consumer is spending more carefully.

  Germany · Q2 2026
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  🇩🇪

  Q1 2026

  Outlook

  Yogurt in Germany

  The German yogurt category is shaped by Müller, Danone (Activia and Actimel as the international branded anchors), and a deep private label tier led by Aldi and Lidl. The structural story is the rise of premium tiers (protein, Greek-style, plant-based) alongside the simultaneous expansion of private label premium. Branded incumbents that ride the mix engine, visible in Danone's FY 2025 numbers, are growing volume share. The promo-led plays are losing it.

  Germany · Q1 2026
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  🇩🇪

  Q1 2026

  Outlook

  Chocolate in Germany

  Mondelez held Q1 2026 results on April 29, 2026 with 6.3% organic net revenue growth group-wide and developed markets at 0.8%. CEO Dirk Van de Put characterized European consumer confidence as "stable but fragile". The company reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance of flat to +2% topline growth rather than raising it, citing geopolitical volatility. Cocoa input costs partially offset Q1 top-line growth, but the mid-year crop is described as "quite positive". Lindt FY 2025 sales reached CHF 5.92 billion. Ritter Sport (Waldenbuch, family-owned since 1912) and August Storck (Berlin, the second-largest German confectionery producer in 2022) anchor the German private side. Aldi and Lidl private label rounds out the competitive set.

  Germany · Q1 2026
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  🇫🇷

  Q1 2026

  Outlook

  Coffee in France

  France is one of Europe's deepest coffee markets and Nespresso's largest single market historically. The category structure in 2026 is being reshaped at the top by big-food consolidation: Keurig Dr Pepper's August 2025 acquisition of JDE Peet's ($18 billion) is being followed by a split that creates Global Coffee Co. as the world's largest pure-play coffee company (€9.9 billion FY 2025 sales). Nestle is sharpening its coffee focus on pods, instant, and ready-to-drink, divesting Blue Bottle Coffee to Centurium Capital in 2026. Lavazza continues to deepen French distribution after acquiring MaxiCoffee in November 2022.

  France · Q1 2026
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  🇬🇧

  Q1 2026

  Outlook

  OTC analgesics in the United Kingdom

  Both UK-listed consumer health majors reported Q1 2026 in late April. Reckitt Core LFL grew 1.3% (3.1% excluding seasonal OTC), with Emerging Markets +7.6% and FY guidance maintained at 4 to 5%. Haleon group organic grew 2.2% with Pain Relief essentially flat at -0.3% on £654m. A soft cold and flu season was the common drag. Reckitt's recovery thesis rests on Mucinex 12-hour innovation in North America and seasonal mean-reversion in H2 2026. The UK pharmacy-channel structure (Boots and independents) remains the distinct competitive context.

  United Kingdom · Q1 2026