Company analysis · Mondelez

Q1 2026: Europe stable but fragile, cocoa pressure begins to ease

By Bulent KotanPublished 29 April 2026Updated 2 May 20262 min read

What Q1 2026 reported

Mondelez reported Q1 2026 results on April 29, 2026, per ConfectioneryNews coverage of the call:

  • Organic net revenue growth: 6.3% group-wide
  • Developed markets organic: 0.8% (with 1.2% volume decline)
  • Emerging markets volume/mix gain: 0.5%
  • FY 2026 guidance reaffirmed: flat to +2% topline; adjusted EPS flat to +5%

CEO Dirk Van de Put characterized European consumer confidence as "stable but fragile". US consumer confidence was characterized as "quite low" and expected to deteriorate.

Cocoa: pressure phasing down

Cocoa input cost partially offset Q1 top-line growth. CFO Luca Zaramella described the mid-year crop as "quite positive" with encouraging early signs for next year's production. The cocoa cycle that pressured chocolate margins through 2024 and 2025 may be approaching the unwind.

What this means for the chocolate portfolio

Mondelez does not break out individual brand or country financials at the quarter, but the European chocolate portfolio (Milka, Toblerone, Côte d'Or, Cadbury per Wikipedia) sits inside the developed markets +0.8% organic line. The combination of stable-but-fragile consumer plus easing cocoa suggests Q2 and H2 strategy will lean on:

  • Mix discipline (premium tier expansion, pack-architecture work)
  • Promotional discipline (no return to 2024-style deep promo cadence)
  • Brand investment (preserved through the cocoa cycle, paying off as input pressure eases)

For European RGM teams, the read is straightforward. Cocoa relief is not the same as cocoa normalisation, and the brands that go back to deep promo cadence the moment input pressure eases will pay for it twice, once in margin and once in shopper trust. The discipline that worked through the cycle is the discipline that compounds coming out of it.

What to watch

  • Whether Mondelez raises FY 2026 guidance once Q2 results land (the current "flat to +2%" topline reaffirmed despite Q1 +6.3% organic suggests management expects Q2 and H2 to soften)
  • Whether the cocoa "quite positive" mid-year crop translates into European list-price relief by Q3
  • Whether the US consumer "quite low" framing affects North America snacks and chocolate separately
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Mondelez: Q1 2026: Europe stable but fragile, cocoa pressure begins to ease | The Consumer Daily