Group organic net revenue growth came in at 6.3% in Q1 2026 (per ConfectioneryNews coverage of the call). Beneath the headline, the divergence between regions tells the story.
Developed markets contributed 0.8% organic growth despite a 1.2% volume decline. Emerging markets contributed 0.5% volume/mix gain. The composition matters more than the headline: developed-market consumers are visibly absent in the volume line.
CEO Dirk Van de Put characterized European consumer confidence as "stable but fragile". US consumer confidence was described as "quite low" and expected to deteriorate. Consumers are "a lot more anxious about how and where they are spending their money", citing concerns about affordability, economic outlook, and job security.
Mondelez reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance at flat to +2% topline growth and adjusted EPS flat to +5%. Despite Q1's +6.3% organic, management chose not to raise. The reaffirmation rather than a guidance lift suggests Q2 and H2 will need to soften materially against the Q1 print.
On cocoa, input cost partially offset top-line growth. CFO Luca Zaramella described the mid-year crop as "quite positive" with encouraging early signs for next year's production. The cocoa cycle that pressured chocolate margins through 2024 and 2025 may be approaching its unwind.
For the European chocolate portfolio (Milka, Toblerone, Côte d'Or, Cadbury), the developed markets +0.8% line covers the European footprint. Q2 and H2 strategy will lean on mix discipline, promotional restraint, and brand investment that was preserved through the cocoa cycle.