Category and country outlooks

Wednesday, 13 May 2026
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4 of 10 outlooks

  • 🇩🇪
    Q2 2026
    Outlook

    Soft Drinks in Germany: Q2 2026 Outlook

    German soft drinks enter Q2 2026 in a market shaped by two competing forces. On one side, European consumer confidence is described as "stable but fragile" by major CPG operators, and developed-market volumes across the sector are under visible pressure. On the other side, the broader European CPG picture is beginning to shift away from price-led growth toward volume and mix recovery, as Danone's FY 2025 result shows. For soft drinks in Germany, the near-term challenge is whether category operators can sustain value growth as pricing contributions moderate and anxious consumers make more deliberate spending choices. Operators with strong mix management and well-positioned mainstream price points are better placed than those relying on residual pricing momentum.

    Germany · Q2 2026
  • 🇩🇪
    Q2 2026
    Outlook

    Confectionery in Germany: Q2 2026 Outlook

    Germany's confectionery market enters Q2 2026 with two forces pulling in opposite directions. On the cost side, the mid-year cocoa crop is described as quite positive, offering the first real relief signal after two years of intense input cost pressure. On the demand side, European consumer confidence is "stable but fragile" according to Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put, and developed-market volume is visibly under pressure, with Mondelez's developed-market segment posting a 1.2% volume decline in Q1 2026 even as group organic growth hit 6.3%. Nestle is moving separately, investing in ChoViva, a sunflower-based cocoa ingredient from Planet A Foods, signalling a structural bet on alternative cocoa ingredients rather than waiting for the commodity cycle to self-correct. The broad picture for German confectionery in Q2 2026 is cautious: cost relief is coming but not yet felt, and the consumer is spending more carefully.

    Germany · Q2 2026
  • 🇩🇪
    Q1 2026
    Outlook

    Yogurt in Germany

    The German yogurt category is shaped by Müller, Danone (Activia and Actimel as the international branded anchors), and a deep private label tier led by Aldi and Lidl. The structural story is the rise of premium tiers (protein, Greek-style, plant-based) alongside the simultaneous expansion of private label premium. Branded incumbents that ride the mix engine, visible in Danone's FY 2025 numbers, are growing volume share. The promo-led plays are losing it.

    Germany · Q1 2026
  • 🇩🇪
    Q1 2026
    Outlook

    Chocolate in Germany

    Mondelez held Q1 2026 results on April 29, 2026 with 6.3% organic net revenue growth group-wide and developed markets at 0.8%. CEO Dirk Van de Put characterized European consumer confidence as "stable but fragile". The company reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance of flat to +2% topline growth rather than raising it, citing geopolitical volatility. Cocoa input costs partially offset Q1 top-line growth, but the mid-year crop is described as "quite positive". Lindt FY 2025 sales reached CHF 5.92 billion. Ritter Sport (Waldenbuch, family-owned since 1912) and August Storck (Berlin, the second-largest German confectionery producer in 2022) anchor the German private side. Aldi and Lidl private label rounds out the competitive set.

    Germany · Q1 2026