India's households face imminent price rises
Fuel cost pressures triggered by the West Asia conflict are rippling through India's FMCG supply chains. Companies already dealing with 8 to 10 percent inflationary pressures are raising prices to offset higher freight, distribution and raw material costs. Dabur India Global CEO Mohit Malhotra said the company has already implemented a 4 percent price hike across its business and expects inflation of around 10 percent this fiscal year. Marico and Dabur India have already implemented calibrated price hikes of 2 to 5 percent.
Executives at Britannia Industries and Hindustan Unilever indicated during recent earnings calls that further price hikes may be considered if inflationary pressures persist. At Parle Products, chief marketing officer Mayank Shah was quoted saying that "a price increase now appears imminent, though the quantum is still being evaluated." Nestlé India's managing director Manish Tiwary told the media: "We are monitoring the developments very closely. Pricing is always our last lever."
Rural demand faces the biggest threat
Industry experts warn that prolonged crude oil volatility, rather than a one-time fuel increase, poses the larger risk for consumption demand, particularly in rural markets. Naveen Malpani, partner and consumer and retail industry leader at Grant Thornton Bharat, told the publication that "if fuel prices remain elevated over multiple quarters, companies may eventually resort to calibrated price hikes or grammage reductions, which could weigh on consumption recovery."
The timing is awkward for India's FMCG makers. Consumer demand had started showing signs of recovery after last year's GST rate cuts, with companies such as Nestlé India and Hindustan Unilever reporting strong fourth-quarter earnings.
Global food giants wrestle with break-up bets
While Indian FMCG companies are fighting near-term margin squeeze, multinational food conglomerates are pursuing larger structural shifts. Unilever announced a $40 billion merger of its Foods business (excluding India) with American sauce and spice brand McCormick and Company. The deal was positioned as creating two stronger, more focused businesses. Yet the market reaction has been swift and negative: Unilever shares plummeted £3.29 per share within 24 hours of the announcement and have not recovered.
Terry Smith, a major fund manager and one of Unilever's biggest investors, sold his entire stake in the business. Smith told the media: "We have sold out of Unilever because the company appears to have abandoned its promised operational focus in favour of activist-driven break-ups." He cited concerns over McCormick's management and returns, noting that the deal was reportedly spearheaded by activist investor Nelson Peltz.
Separation complexity deepens risks
The Unilever-McCormick deal reflects a broader industry strategy: Kraft Heinz also announced plans to split into two separate entities, though that move is currently paused after its biggest investor Berkshire Hathaway moved to sell its entire stake. Nestlé has also sold part of its coffee and waters businesses. Mars acquired Kellanova in a $36 billion deal, while Ferrero Group bought WK Kellogg Co.
But recent market reactions suggest investors are becoming more selective. Consultant Doug Ehrenkranz, managing partner at Boyden, notes that "demergers in the food space are rarely driven by a single factor." When splits do work, they can give each business clearer strategic focus and allow capital to be allocated more efficiently. The reality, however, is far more complex. Detangling operations, manufacturing, supply chain, IT systems and data takes time. Demergers can reshape company culture and trigger talent attrition, as uncertainty drives away high-performing employees with external options.
Boards typically measure separation success over a long period, but tolerance for underperformance is often limited to a 12 to 24 month window. If benefits have not materialised within that timeframe, boards may revisit strategy or adjust leadership. Market volatility and execution challenges suggest that Big Food's biggest names should "proceed with caution when considering a separation," Ehrenkranz warns.
Private equity circles the standalone ice-cream prize
Among the ongoing restructurings, the spin-off of The Magnum Ice Cream Company (TMICC) from Unilever is attracting private equity attention. Blackstone and CD&R are reportedly in the early stages of exploring bids for TMICC, according to Reuters sources cited by Just Food. The two private equity firms are monitoring the company's share price performance and ice-cream sales over the summer period before deciding whether to proceed.
TMICC reported first-quarter organic sales growth of 2.9 percent in 2026, up from 1.4 percent in the year-earlier quarter, with CEO Peter ter Kulve citing improved operational rigour and quality growth driven by innovation and execution. The company maintained its full-year organic sales growth guidance of 3 to 5 percent despite Middle East disruptions to energy prices and supply chains. Unilever still owns 19.9 percent of the ice-cream business but has said it will wind down that share gradually over five years.