Chocolate's positioning as an "affordable luxury" has protected dollar sales during prolonged economic pressure, but the category is seeing a widening gap between revenue growth and actual consumption. Dollar sales of chocolate rose 25.5% or $4.8 billion between 2020 and 2025, yet unit sales fell 12.4% (903 million units) and volume dropped 11.4% (291 million pounds) in the same period, according to Circana data cited in the article.
Chocolate made up 51.7% of confectionery sales, worth $28.4 billion in 2025, compared to non-chocolate candy at 40.9% of sales worth $22.5 billion, according to Euromonitor all-outlet sales data. But the composition is shifting. Non-chocolate candy's share of dollar sales has risen steadily from 32.6% in 2011 to 40.9% in 2025, while non-chocolate candy unit sales rose 1.2% (65 million units) to 5.33 billion units between 2021 and 2025.
Inflation and cocoa costs driving chocolate price pressure
Chocolate has borne the brunt of inflation. Volatile cocoa costs and supply shortages forced manufacturers to raise chocolate prices more sharply than other confections, according to analyst Anne-Marie Roerink of 210 Analytics. This higher price tier has eroded affordability, the traditional pillar of chocolate's appeal.
Younger consumers prefer gummy, hard, and freeze-dried candy
Gen Z and Millennial shoppers are not engaging with chocolate to the same extent as older Gen X and Boomer consumers. These younger cohorts over-index for gummy candy, hard candies, and freeze-dried candy, with particular appeal to items that deliver novelty and experience. Flavor innovation, especially sour profiles that resonate more with Gen Z (24%) than Boomers (5%), is driving growth in non-chocolate categories.
Non-chocolate candy gaining momentum in 2025
Non-chocolate candy dollar sales rose 41.2% or $4.1 billion to $14.1 billion in 2025 compared to 2021, according to Circana data. Year-over-year growth in 2025 included seasonal candy (up 6.8% or $343 million), gummy candy (up 1.5% or $536 million), hard candy (up 2% or $316 million), and novelty non-chocolate candy (up 17.4% or $2 million off a smaller base). Meanwhile, categories like chewy candy (down 5.3% or $616 million) and licorice (down 10.7% or $123 million) lost sales.
Chocolate beyond the bar format
Chocolate's ingredient profile is proliferating across categories including granola bars, yogurt, and breakfast items. For 82% of consumers, these products are replacing actual chocolate in their diets. Meanwhile, snack-size chocolate products grew 10% or 267 million pounds in volume in 2025, suggesting that smaller formats better fit consumers' financial and caloric budgets while maintaining category engagement.
The data points to a future where chocolate's traditional bar formats face continued pressure, but smaller packs and cross-category applications may sustain its role as an affordable indulgence.