China committed to purchasing at least $17 billion per year of US agricultural products in 2026 (prorated), 2027 and 2028, according to a White House statement released May 17. The announcement sent grain commodity futures sharply higher: corn futures rose 4.7% on May 18, July Kansas City wheat climbed 2.3%, Minneapolis wheat jumped 2.6%, Chicago wheat soared 4.5%, and July soybeans settled 3.1% higher.
The May 2026 agreement differs from an October 2025 deal in its structure. The earlier agreement committed China to purchasing 12 million tonnes of US soybeans during the 2025-26 marketing year and 25 million tonnes annually for the next three years. The May statement shifts to a dollar-based target rather than specific volumes.
Market impact beyond grain
Beyond grain, China renewed listings for more than 400 US beef facilities and added new listings. China also agreed to resume importing US poultry from states confirmed by the US Department of Agriculture as not having any confirmed detections of highly pathogenic avian influenza.
The announcement came after months of trade tension. President Trump launched tariffs on April 2, 2025 during an event he called "Liberation Day," sparking retaliatory Chinese measures. US soybean exports to China fell 75% in 2025 compared to 2024 (calendar year), according to Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow emeritus at the International Food Policy Research Institute and former chief economist at the USDA.
History of trade disruption
Trade friction between the two nations predates Trump's second term. In 2018, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel from China, prompting retaliation against US agricultural exports. US soybean exports to China during the 2017-18 marketing year hit their lowest volume since 2013-14 and lowest value since 2009-10. The 2018 trade war ultimately cost US agriculture more than $27 billion, with soybeans accounting for 71% of annualized losses.
The October 2025 soybean deal provided the first major thaw in relations, reducing tensions that had threatened broader US agricultural competitiveness in global markets.